Introduction
The latest Israeli assault on
Gaza comes on the heels of Hamas-Fatah reconciliation, turmoil in Iraq, intense
conflict in Syria and ongoing attrition in Kiev. For all these conflicts, there is lack or
absence of clarity on who holds the upper hand, there is clarity of who started
each conflict even in disguise and more over there is no end in sight. If there
is anything called balance, it can be discerned with great difficulty in all
the mentioned conflicts but the common denominator is increasing number of
casualties. In the case of Gaza assault it is difficult to make comparisons as
they do not exist however a change in the method of the occupied has changed
the game for the occupier.
Part One
In the last decade Israeli
military has concentrated its efforts to confronting non-state actors even
despite who may be on paper their inferior capabilities, assets and
manpower. One may rightly question the
motive for such waste of resources in responding to non-state actors military
distractions. Justifications are litany from ‘war on terror’ play-book to
bubbling hubris of military superiority to unalloyed support of the United
States can be cited.
In most of these conflicts, it is
almost impossible to capture the objectives or rather the objectives may be
directed as phased approached to perpetual conflict with non-state actors.
Hezbollah and Hamas seem to be given the opportunity to contextualise their
raison d'être as resistance movements by their opponent in the military
theatre. They regroup and become ready
for the next round despite the pounding and blood-letting from some of the most
lethal weapons ever made by man.
Latest Offensive
The current attack on Gaza
followed the previous patterns of sharp infliction of unimaginable pain
including deaths. For a people under occupation for over 2 generations, who
have died many times over before, death is no more a killer to them. May be
they have conquered death even though it may not have been their a priori objectives. With all the tools of disinformation and
media manipulations, there is consensus that Gaza is not a military theatre of
importance or significance rather a sorry refugee camp holding so much people
against their will and aspiration.
The convergence of daily war of
dehumanisation and no-hold bar military bombardment may not make much
difference to the residents. In any case, war is war regardless of its shape,
form and style. Sadly the world looked on, the powerful become powerless to intervene
and stop the bloodshed, senior diplomats jump in defiance of history for the
most irresponsible hyperbole.
Game Change
As Israeli onslaught continues
unchallenged and uncontested, the occupied weak responses have gained new
length and distance to target locations/assets of importance in Israel. Few
days ago, it was reported that some missiles fired by Hamas landed near Tel Aviv airport. There is no reason to believe that the missile caused physical damage
but the real damage unfolded immediately, lack of confidence of aviation safety in Israeli airspace. Despite being the primary support of
Israel, United States authority immediately suspended all flights between US
and Tel Aviv, and then other countries in Europe and Russia followed suit.
The
message is clear that western powers can only intervene in this conflict unless
their economic interest is at stake. Contextually all of a sudden they have
started communicating with Hamas and Gazans in a curious way unimaginable in the
past. This communication has raised the stake higher by appropriating the
silence and turning it into a weapon of assertiveness and attention between
Gazans and the rest of the world especially the western powers.
Even though western media have
refused to run with the story properly, the economy damage of flight suspension between
Tel Aviv and the rest of her major partners is incalculable and decisive.
Unfortunately this will not be a burden borne solely by Israel rather by her
partners as well. So long as the conflict continues, whether missiles are
fires into Israel or not, confidence of her partners will not be restored until this conflict ceases without encouraging new one in the future. Hamas will feel empowered that the game changer has in part contributed to slowly eliminating Gaza’s physically isolation from the rest
of the world.
Loser’s Match
Gaza’s geostrategic importance is much more
than meets the eyes. Nevertheless that sparse and tiny piece of real estate and
her territorial water holds vast resources. Gazans need to heal first in a
post-conflict period of renewed humanisation and reconscientisation. This
conflict and others running parallel to it have extended exposure of United
States as a geopolitical power in decline. While it may be construed that
Israel has her support, Israel is surely making her way out through this
conflict. United States is caught in her own Gordian knot increasingly
impossible to cut or even understanding its unique tying method.
The cumbersome
and inflexible attention to diplomacy, exuberance of creating instability in
the region ad infinitum, and the increasing isolation in the world as a negative
power has culminated in diminishing US standing. United States diminution on the world stage is vividly caught by the hurried and trepid retreat & evacuation of her citizens in Tripoli few day ago. It didn't make the headlines but the subtext is very clear; we can be counted to be the destroyer-extraordinary while we retreat in allergic reaction to peace & stability. What is Ghaddafi's take on it?
While the Arab world is mortally
weakened with instability as the staple in most of her capitals, Egypt seem to
have obtained most of the unsavoury dish.
In her bid to isolate Hamas and Gazans, the general in civilian clothes
over Cairo only extended known perception of Egypt’s role as a puppet & a fallen
star of the Arab world. By locking and throwing away the key of Rafah crossing
even as the conflict rages, Cairo lost much political and diplomatic capital
due to myopia and poor appreciation of history. The dignity of Egypt as an
African country and an Arab nation is severely diminished. General Sisi may have usurped power for
himself but Egypt is haemorrhaging credibility.
Saudi Arabia continues her losing
streak on all her entries. By working hand in glove with Tel Aviv on many
diplomatic files and shadowing Cairo towards much needed legitimacy, Riyadh is
constrained in possessing a fully settled balance sheet. In Syria, Iraq and now
Gaza; Riyadh is now relegated to partaking in flurry of diplomatic activities
with no concrete results to show.
Only time will tell when the
conflict will end and finally the Arab Street will declare her winners. Surely
they will be few and orphaned. As for
Gazans, the process of concluding this conflict opens a window that will inevitably
place them on the pedestal where their dignities can no longer be denied.
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